Observations from the Weekend: No Sure Thing in Investing

I’ll be posting a new article on Tuesday due to too many crazy holiday merry-making events this weekend.

But a few observations until then:

1. Retail still stinks.

The stores continue to see light traffic. I was in a prominent Target in Chicago on Saturday afternoon which normally would have been a zoo with only 12 days to go until Christmas and it was only mildly crowded.

The toy aisle had people, of course. But I didn’t have to wait long at the check-out (and they had all aisles open.)

Similarly- Lord & Taylor was advertising 25% off everything in the store through Tuesday of this week if you went to their website and printed off the “friends and family” coupon.

2. How can the stock markets be holding up with all this negative news?

No one can time the markets. They sometimes behave irrationally- but you should prepare yourself for further pain in the coming months as the economy continues to slow and earnings estimates are cut.

Not many stocks are actually “cheap.” Have patience.

3. Lots of rich people got taken for a ride in the $50 billion ponzi scheme.

I’m sure you’ve heard the story of Bernard Madoff and his alleged $50 billion ponzi investment scheme by now. It’s mainly affecting really rich people who thought they had solved the mystery of investing and found a “sure thing.”

That’s the problem with the stock market. No one can make money quarter after quarter, year after year, without ever seeing a loss. Not even the greatest investors.

If someone tells you they can- they’re lying.

So why did so many “smart” and “rich” investors get taken in? Just like you and me- they wanted to believe. They wanted the golden ticket to even more riches.

If you have to ask “how are they making that much money?” - then you shouldn’t be investing.

More on this market and what industries are holding up tomorrow.