Well- the stock is making someonerich over the last year. Forget Google. The real action has been in solar power. First Solar (FSLR) to be exact. The stock is up from $23 to nearly $180 in after hours trading yesterday.

Earnings to come out on Wednesday but the stock has been soaring. It’s trading at the “sane” valuation of 170 times earnings (sarcasm alert, sarcasm alert). But hey- what’s not to like, right? Solar power is where it’s at.

The company just announced $1 billion worth of new contracts and there are skeptics, like rydercup11, on the Yahoo Message Boards about how much of a profit the company will really see from them:

Yeah… here we go again.

Thye announce $1B in contracts that occur over a 5 year period, or about $200M increase in annual revenues.

And, the market cap of the Co. goes up by $800M in the AH?

Even if this Co could generate a 20% net after tax profit margin on these sales, and that would be a phenominal after tax profit margin, that only equates to $40M per year in increased profits. And to assume a 20% net after tax profit margin is very very difficult to achieve, for a manufacturing entity.

The absurdity continues….

Be careful in companies that are trading up without any worries about company valuation. Apparently, some posters think Rydercup is being too logical:

Rydercup,

Obviously, you are not making any money, in this type of the market go with the flow and ask questions later, you are thinking it way too much…your loss.

Yes- Rydercup dares to question valuation. Will investors never learn? Watch out for a hard landing in First Solar. I don’t know when- but it will happen. Trust me.

Chipotle (CMG) announced earnings and they blew through analyst estimates. Earnings were up 75% from a year ago due to more restaurants, more customers and slightly higher menu prices. Apparently, Chipotle locked in prices on key items, like cheese, so they haven’t had to face the higher dairy prices this year (as some competitors have.)

Smart move.

They are also beginning expansion overseas, with their first store in Toronto opening early next year.

The stock is very pricey- trading at 56 times its 2008 forward earnings. It has doubled this year.

But some posters on the Yahoo Message Board seem to think that Chipotle is the “next” McDonalds. Is it?

A year ago I predicted CMG would double every year except one for the next six years.
OK, we’re already up over 100% this year, so we’ll probably correct in January.
But by March we’ll turn around and should end 2008 much higher than now.

All this is based on CMG repeating what MCD did between 1966 and 1972 (with this year modeling 1967).
So far its been a close match.

Does Chipotle have the kind of market expansion that McDonalds had back in the 1960s? I don’t know. There is certainly more competition now than in the 1960s. Also, what happens if the consumer really pulls back on spending (including restaurant spending.) Chipotle is NOT Taco Bell (the cheaper alternative.)

Chipotle is certainly growing very quickly. But quick enough to support the stock price? Stay tuned.

Techies are going ga-ga over Microsoft’s gangbuster earnings. Nearly every analyst has commented how much better they were- far beyond anything they were expecting.

It’s nice to surprise the analysts to the upside, for once.

You’d think the question going forward would be- can they do it again next quarter and the quarter after that? And some investors are asking that. But many are simply obsessed with beating Google (for justifiable reasons.)

As this poster, pirranhajo said on the Yahoo Message Board under a message called “Congratulations! Now time to beat GOOG”:

Basically from now on ,the war will be online ad field. GOOG got DCLK we got AQNT. Still GOOG has edge over MSFT. We shouldn’t let them take over DCLK at the beginning, anyway it doesn’t matter now, we may see minor ad -company aquisitions like VCLK, then we are set to beat GOOG in his own game imo. Bottomline is that MSFT gotta get bigger pie from ad markets .I believe if management executes wisely we may see 50$ in 6 month.

Is this right? Is the “war” really in advertising?

Because Google isn’t much more than one big advertising company. That’s how they make their money- by being the conduit for ads. Is that all that Microsoft is or aspires to be? And if so- what kind of a company is that?

I’m not saying the money isn’t there- because it is. But, again, advertising is NOT a “product” -per say. Halo is a product. XBox is a product. Vista is a product. A Google ad is not a product.

Perhaps Microsoft can win the “war” by doing what Apple is doing: focusing on the product.

I’m just saying.

Sell! Sell! Sell!

Coach (COH) is getting hammered today even though the company had stellar earnings yet again this quarter. Why is it down? In the conference call their CEO said that foot traffic in U.S. stores had slowed the past few weeks.

The large institutions seem to be dumping the stock as very heavy volume is trading hands. Normal volume is 5 million shares and we will see six times that during the session.

There appears to be some panic on the Yahoo Message Boards, like this message from hidal46go under the title “URGENT COACH SELL”:

I’m a long stock holder but now deeply worried. my targets for coach has gone below expectations. Usually this never happens. I follow this stock alot. Is now evident that will get worst. Some factors that will cause the stock to go lower within the next few days are:

The problem of oil going higher. Options expiration week. and the credit crunch that still lurks around. This may also include the fact that not many are spending as much as the goverment retail report claims. Not to mention the fact that some companies have reported their earnings below expectations.

My stragety, take your loses for now and wait and see. It is likely that coach will reach $37.00 below that, it will signal the company is in trouble.

Coach is trading below $37 a share- so apparently they are in “trouble”.

That makes no sense.

The stock price doesn’t always reflect the reality of what is happening in the company. As I said, the earnings reported today were excellent. The company is still firing on all cylinders. Yes- things may be slowing slightly in their U.S. stores. But it’s too soon to panic.

With the stock off over 11% today, it might be worth taking a second look at this company. It just went on “sale.”