Who doesn’t like the story?

China is growing at over 10% a year. The middle class is expanding. Their economy is expected to surpass the U.S. economy in like 20 years. Most of the Chinese don’t even have basic things Americans take for granted- like toasters. What happens when they all buy televisions, microwaves and IKEA furniture?

Compared to other emerging market countries- there are lots of Chinese companies that are trading on the NYSE. In the last year, revenue was soaring at many of them. It seemed like easy money.

But in recent months, some cracks have started appearing with some companies.

China Green Agriculture (CGA), an organic fertilizer company, is the subject of a class action shareholder lawsuit that is alleging accounting irregularities. Never good. The stock has plunged from $18 to $8.

Fuqi International (FUQI), a jewelry retailer, is in the process of restating its revenue from last year. It has not filed the appropriate 10-Q filings in about a year. The company has received several non-compliance notices from the NASDAQ. Why hasn’t it been de-listed yet? I don’t get it.

Shares have fallen from $18 to $6 but if it’s delisted- look out below. But the bigger question is, do you really want to own a company that can’t fix it’s accounting in over a year? If it can’t even do that- how’s the rest of the company being run? Remember, as a shareholder, you are an owner. Do you want to own a company like that?

Rino International (RINO) is the latest edition to the “what the heck is going on” club. RINO provides water treatment for steel companies. It is subject to an analyst report that alleges some of its customers are fake. On Nov 17, the stock was halted, the earnings conference call cancelled and the company hasn’t responded to any questions since (from reporters, analysts or anybody.)

Shares have been halted for nearly 2 days and the NASDAQ doesn’t seem to know when, or if, shares will resume trading. According to Barron’s, the company itself has asked for the halt (not the NASDAQ). Bizarre!

The stock had plunged 17% into the halting of trading and is now trading at $6. When it does re-open, look out below!

Again, as a company owner, is THIS what you want to own? There are just too many great companies to own shares in. It’s not worth it.

Little Transparency With Chinese Companies
Many of the smaller Chinese companies really have little transparency. Very few analysts cover these companies. Those that do- seem to do so from afar making it nearly impossible to actually verify the information in the earnings press releases. And I believe many of them should not even be public at all. They are too small and too unsophisticated to deal with the rigors required from the SEC to be a listed company. That’s just my opinion.

I saw a story recently that was talking about a Chinese company that ran upscale spas and exercise clubs. Sounds intriguing, right? In a country with an expanding middle class? But further investigation showed that it owned 4 spas. That’s it. FOUR! And they were thinking of an IPO. Really???

Be Careful With China
There are still ways to invest in China that might soften the blow if a particular company has a meltdown.

You can buy the Small Cap China ETF (HAO). At least that gives you a basket of all the companies.

But otherwise, buyer beware. It’s like the wild west out there. While there are lots of opportunities with China- all investors should do their due diligence.

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Apparently, the Naperville Saturn lives on- but obviously not for long- as the brand is closing. The Naperville Saturn is large and has been in business longer than some of the others which must be why they’re holding on a little longer.

I have owned my green 4-door Saturn since 1997. It was a “new” 1998 model at the time, just new in the showroom, when I bought it. The car now has 83,000 miles on it and has been on both the east and the west coasts.

And it still drives like it’s brand new.

A Tale of One Car

I bought the car at the Saturn of Alexandria, Virginia where the “salesperson” (I use those terms lightly because, as you recall, there was no negotiation on price at the Saturn dealerships of old) gave my older brother and I the keys to the car and said, “come back in an hour”- all just by plopping down a copy of my drivers license.

I formerly had owned a Honda Accord that my parents had bought me after I got out of college. We sold that when I went off to law school (as I certainly didn’t need that car in downtown Philadelphia.) But by the end of college, I again needed transportation.

Having loved my Honda Accord, my brother and I (he was my “negotiator”) went back to Honda expecting to purchase another one. But in the intervening years, the Accord had become the “best selling car in America” and they now had the attitude that went along with that.

The Accord was also much more expensive than a few years before. The Honda dealership in Virginia could care less if I bought one of their cars. They refused to negotiate off the $16,000 price tag and basically said “take it or leave it” as they had “others” who would want the car.

We left it.

We went to Mazda after that because Mazda had the cute Protege model that was similar to the Accord. But the Mazda dealership was also unhelpful and practically kept us trapped in the salesman’s office trying to get us to drive off with the car. They also had a price tag of $14,000 or so, which was also steep for a new law school grad.

Saturn Did it Right

Finally, we went to the Saturn dealership in Alexandria. And love struck.

For $12,300 I got my 4-door automatic with air conditioning (a MUST in Virginia). The air conditioning was around $800 extra.

The car was so basic it didn’t have a CD player (considered an upgrade back in the 90s.) To this day, there is simply an empty space where the CD player would have gone and which turned out to be a blessing in disguise when I parked it on the streets of San Francisco for several years. After all, that was one less thing available to steal.

Saturn used to pull the newly bought cars into the showrooms where they would take your picture as you stood in front of the car (I still have mine.) I didn’t know until they sent it to me some weeks later (attached to a calendar) that the sales people were behind me jumping up and pumping their fists into the air in celebration.

Very amusing, to say the least.

Ohio Turnpike or Highway 1 in California: My Saturn Could Handle it All

Bought in Virginia, my green Saturn traveled with me to Chicago after law school graduation (including one night where my brother and I had to sleep in the not too comfortable front seats overnight because all the motels along the Ohio Turnpike were sold out.)

It then moved with me when I took a job in San Francisco (though I had it shipped- as I didn’t want to test it over the Rocky Mountains.)

But it did just fine up and down the California coast- easily traversing the sometimes treacherous, but always beautiful, Highway 1 along California’s coast as far south as Hearst Castle.

I drove it through the mountains to Lake Tahoe several times (yes- with the 4-cylinder engine- I occassionally had to use the “turnout” zones to let those with bigger engines pass me by on the narrow mountain highways.)

My green 4-cylinder Saturn with no cruise control also fearlessly took on the hills of Highway 280 from San Francisco to Silicon Valley (47 miles each way) every day for over 6 months.

No More Free Donuts

With the closings of the dealerships imminent, I recently took my car for one last service at the Downers Grove Saturn. Back in Illinois after 7 years in California, the only “major” problem I ever had with the car was a bad starter and a fuel pump that had to be replaced.

On this check-up, I felt some pulsing in the brakes and wanted them to check it. Sure enough, it was pretty rusted out (Chicago winters for you) so I had the whole thing replaced.

It was eerie being in the dealership so near the end. There were still a few cars in the showroom and a few on the lot (but not nearly what was there six months ago.) There was a receptionist, but one of the two waiting areas had already shut down. The cable tv was still on.

But on the counter, as always, were the free donuts.

Every time I’ve been to any Saturn dealership, and I’ve been to 5 different ones around the country, they have always had the free donuts.

Maybe that’s just a little thing. But it matters.

Here was a dealership about to close, which meant all of those people would likely be out of work, and the donuts were still there.

The service was also still there. First class all the way.

I’ve always taken my car to Saturn dealerships even for basic oil changes because I felt that the service was so good and they, frankly, knew my car best.

Maybe They Built It Too Good?

My car is nearly 12 years old- which is ancient by car standards. But if you look around you on the highway, you still see quite a few of the late 1990s-era Saturns (and sometimes an early 1990s Saturn.)

With its plastic exterior and basic interior there is, frankly, not a lot that can go wrong with the car (knock on wood.) Maybe Saturn built them “too” good. Because I would have bought another Saturn if I desperately needed a new car- but with the old one working just fine- there’s not much of a point.

Children Without a Home

When I was paying for my new brakes at the Downers Grove Saturn two weeks ago, another customer meekly asked, “where do I take my car now?” which is the same thing I was thinking.

Who wants us now?

The receptionist told us that any General Motors dealership can service it.

That’s fine and all, but it won’t be the same. Why will Cadillac’s service department care about us? They won’t.

Saturn had a lot going for it (not to mention the loyalty from its customers.) I’m hoping something positive comes out of the demise of the brand. Maybe there’s an entrepreneur out there just hankering to start up a car company that caters to the customers, has fun cars AND can make a profit.

Thank You Saturn!

And so, after 12 years, I want to say thank you to all the fine Saturn employees, especially the mechanics, who took care of me and my car in multiple states around the country with exceptional service.

And, of course, free donuts.

Thank you Saturn of Alexandria (for selling me my car).
Thank you Saturn of Naperville (for servicing it in the late 1990s)
Thank you Saturn of Marin, California (this dealership closed about 6 years ago)
Thank you Saturn of San Jose, California (for quickly replacing the fuel pump and my starter and other odds and ends)
and
Thank you Saturn of Downers Grove (for my new brakes and numerous oil changes.)

You guys kicked butt. May your spirit live on.

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They base it on the uptick in sales that are occuring in less than a handful of states- including California, Arizona and Nevada.

In some places in those states, foreclosures have driven prices down below 1989 levels.

Houses in the Phoenix area that once sold for $300,000 are now listed for $50,000 and $70,000 by the bank.

How could there NOT be an uptick in sales?

The problem is- not many sales are occuring of “organic” properties (i.e. those not owned by the bank.)

Houses owned by normal sellers can’t compete with bank prices so those homes sit on the market. Yet, the bank prices are now setting the comps and essentially ARE the market in those areas.

In many other parts of the country where foreclosures, while plentiful, aren’t yet pushing down prices by huge percentages- can we say we’re at the “bottom”?

Chicago Prices Not Cratering

On the north side of Chicago with the exclusive neighborhoods of Lincoln Park and Lakeview, you can hardly tell there is a housing bust at all. Lincoln Park prices on single family homes are down only 2.2%. Lakeview is also holding up fairly well.

Inventory, while growing, hasn’t exploded.

And while there are occasional foreclosures, especially of condos, nothing is selling for $70,000 in these neighborhoods.

Could it be that the “bust” just won’t be as pronounced in some cities and states as it is in, say, California or Arizona?

Chicago was not a complete innocent in the housing boom. It saw its own form of speculation as thousands of new condos were added, including nearly 10,000 in the “new” neighborhood called the South Loop. Many of those buildings are only now nearing completion at a time when condo loans are very difficult to obtain.

Prices Not in Line with Rents or Income

In Chicago, sales prices, despite a slight decline, still don’t appear to be in line with either rents or average incomes. In most cases, it is still far cheaper to rent than to own the same home.

And the $500,000 single family home on the north side is still the norm despite incomes that don’t support that price point.

The Nation Needs a Reality Check on Housing

What’s wrong with affordable housing? I applaud those in Arizona that are now able to buy their first home (instead of renting) for something comparable to the rental prices. This is how it SHOULD be.

It will make us healthier as a nation in the long run.

Of course, we’ll have to go through the pain now.

But why do people think $500,000 home prices are “normal”? They’re not. $500,000 homes used to mean you were quite well off. That wasn’t what you paid for a “starter” home (which is what you now pay in many Chicago north side neighborhoods along the lakefront.)

Until prices come down, nationwide, to something that is equivalent, or under, rental prices, the “bottom” of the housing market is not yet upon us.

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Remember all those stories with the dire predictions of labor shortages as the oldest of the baby boomers retire and Generation X, at half the size, not being able to fill all the job openings?

Surprise!

The Baby Boomers aren’t retiring after all.

And those that already have, are re-entering the workforce after the market collapse shredded their portfolios and the housing bust decimated the value of, probably, their largest asset.

In some cases, 60-year olds are competing against their 25-year old children for the same jobs. And, sorry to say, with the changes in technology, if you’ve been out of the workforce even 5 years (let alone 25), you’ll be at an extreme disadvantage.

From the New York Times:

It has been a humbling time. Mrs. Diamond, who has a master’s degree in library science and was chairwoman of the library committee at her sons’ school for a decade, is applying for work with a 25-year gap in her résumé. “On one application, there was a whole page of databases I didn’t know and had to leave blank,” she said.

In November, Mrs. Diamond and Matt, whose major at Johns Hopkins was neuroscience, were vying for the same job, a research analyst for a pharmaceuticals company — until she withdrew. “As a mother, I felt it was more important for Matt to get his foot in the door,” she said. It didn’t matter; the position was frozen. No one was hired.

Then there are those Baby Boomers who are in need of jobs because the housing “dream” didn’t quite turn out as they thought it would.

Shouldn’t they own their houses outright by now?

Forgive me for sounding harsh, but if you bought a home in your 30s and you’re now 65 or 70, shouldn’t you be sitting pretty?

But apparently there wasn’t as much “downsizing” during the boom, but instead “up-sizing” as many Baby Boomers bought retirement homes worth far more than they should have thinking that real estate only goes up.

And now, they’re sitting on a declining asset as well as a high mortgage payment at the very same time that their 401ks have declined sharply.

Both of my grandmothers, aged 89 and 90, respectively, have owned their homes outright for decades. They were of the Greatest Generation- those that saw the Great Depression and World War II. Most of them didn’t mess around with re-financing or buying bigger houses or vacation homes as they got into their 70s and 80s.

But the Baby Boomers had no fear.

And now, what do they do?

They are trying to re-enter the workforce. Fully 1 in 10 of those in their 60s believe they will never retire. And nearly 30% believe they’ll work well into their 70s.

This will have a dramatic effect on both Generation X and Y- both of which need the Baby Boomers to exit the stage in order for them to advance.

Could there be generational warfare in the future as each group fights for limited resources?

In the New York Times piece, if you were a recruiter at that pharmaceutical company, do you hire the older worker who hasn’t worked in 25 years or do you hire the young college graduate who at least knows what Twitter is?

That is the reality.

The Baby Boomers, which enjoyed several of the greatest bull markets (in both stocks and real estate) the country has every seen, didn’t capitalize much on those bull runs. There’s no way of calculating the ramifications of this. But we do know it probably won’t be good.

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